5 reasons we know extreme weather events are increasing

2002, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2010 

Those are the 5 hottest summers in European history between 1500 and 2010. 

The 5 coldest summers in European history? 1695, 1821, 1888, 1902, 1923

See the trend? 

European summer temperatures for 1500–2010. Vertical lines show the temperature deviations from average of individual summers, the five coldest and the five warmest are highlighted. The grey histogram shows the distribution for the 1500–2002 period with a Gaussian fit shown in black. That 2010, 2003, 2002, 2006 and 2007 are the warmest summers on record is clearly not just random but a systematic result of a warming climate. 

The European heat wave of 2003 may not have destroyed any buildings – but it is well documented that it caused about 70,000 fatalities. This is the type of event for which the probability has increased by a factor of five due to global warming – and is likely to rise to a factor twelve over the next thirty years. 

In a 2011 paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy, the authors calculated the expected number of monthly heat records based the observed gradual changes in climate. The paper determined that we should experience five times the number of heat records with 1 degree of warming versus the number expected in a stationary climate. This is exactly what we are seeing. 

I calculated the probability that the 5 hottest summers in 510 years all came from the last decade. The odds would be less than 1 in a billion if we were in a stable climate! 

I've been thinking a lot about what standards we should use for designing resilient buildings that are capable of handling these types of extreme weather events. 

This paper would suggest that our building design decisions may actually save lives. If heat waves, like the European heat wave of 2003 that killed 70,000 people, are going to be 12x more likely over the next 30 years – how should we design our buildings so they are able to maintain healthy temperatures at affordable costs when the extreme heat waves hit here at home? 

[Real Climate]

Boston to Developers: Time to Prepare for Climate Change

Developers in Boston will soon be required to address how they'll deal with threats of climate change before they construct large buildings, if a new proposal is passed in the city.

The proposal, which is part of the city's new Climate Ready Boston report and will be presented before the Boston Redevelopment Authority board next month, would require developers in Boston to complete a climate-proofing checklist which would include documenting how the building would survive in the event of a flood or power outage and how it would conserve energy. The rules would apply only to new buildings larger than 50,000 square feet, a stipulation George Bachrach, president of the Environmental League of Massachusetts, said needs to ultimately be done away with.

White House: It's Time For Adaptation and Resilience

The White House is expected to take new steps to help society adapt to global warming, an acknowledgment that worldwide efforts to control emissions will be inadequate to head off big climatic shifts.

White House aides said President Obama would sign an executive order on Friday morning directing federal agencies to make it easier for states and communities to build resilience against storms, droughts and other weather extremes. For instance, when federal money is being spent on projects like roads, bridges, flood control and many others, the plan would encourage greater attention to the likely climate conditions of the future, which might require making the structures stronger or larger.

[NY Times]

Our best chance - Investing in Resilience

After experiencing four 100 year storms in the last 18 months - is it time to start making decisions about our buildings and infrastructure that deviate from our historical practices and assumptions? Should we update our stormwater design standards that are currently based on storm data from 1958? Are there better and more cost effective ways to update our stormwater system than just assuming we need bigger pipes? 

I would propose that the answer to all of these questions is - Yes! 

Lexington will consider at Town Meeting this spring whether it is time to begin taking action in response to climate change.  Town Meeting will be asked to vote if it is time to begin incorporating the effects of climate into our decisions and planning process, and whether we'll ask our Town to develop a climate action plan to identify resilient ways we can adapt to the impacts we are already experiencing and cost effective ways to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Please contact your Town Meeting Members - especially those who are running for office this spring - and ask them to vote Yes on Warrant Article 33. 

Here are some thoughts on this subject from the Boston Globe Opinion page. 

"The best chance of success in minimizing the effects of sea level rise and increasing storm frequency and intensity [emphasis added] will collectively involve industry, government, and individual citizens making challenging decisions that are likely to deviate from historical practices and assumptions." 

"One strategy... is to invest in resilience. This means acknowledging that flooding will occur, but making sure that after the storm recedes, our buildings can be pumped dry, and that we can recover with only minimal damage. This will require new building codes and some significant costs, although not the massive public investment required for large infrastructure." - Dan Schrag and Richard Murray

Richard W. Murray is professor of earth and environment at Boston University and a selectman in Scituate. Daniel P. Schrag is a professor of geology and director of the Harvard University Center for the Environment. 

[Boston Globe]