Global Warming Polls

Reducing Soot - Fastest way to slow global warming

The quickest, best way to slow the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is to reduce soot emissions from the burning of fossil fuel, wood and dung, according to a new study by Stanford researcher Mark Z. Jacobson.

"Controlling soot may be the only method of significantly slowing Arctic warming within the next two decades," said Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering and director of Stanford's Atmosphere/Energy Program.

It is the magnitude of soot's contribution, combined with the fact that it lingers in the atmosphere for only a few weeks before being washed out, that leads to the conclusion that a reduction in soot output would start slowing the pace of global warming almost immediately.

Greenhouse gases, in contrast, typically persist in the atmosphere for decades – some up to a century or more – creating a considerable time lag between when emissions are cut and when the results become apparent.

Jacobson found that eliminating soot produced by the burning of fossil fuels and solid biofuels could reduce warming above parts of the Arctic Circle in the next 15 years by up to 1.7 degrees Celsius. For perspective, net warming in the Arctic has been at least 2.5 degrees Celsius during the last century and is expected to warm significantly more in the future if nothing is done.

He also found that soot emissions kill more than 1.5 million people prematurely worldwide each year and afflict millions more with respiratory illness, cardiovascular disease and asthma, mostly in the developing world, where biofuels are used for home heating and cooking.

Global Warming and Nuclear Security

"Fueled by the buildup of fossil fuel pollution, the world's out-of-control climate is destabilizing many of the nations that control nuclear weapons, including Russia, China, North Korea, India, and Pakistan. Thousands have died in fires and floods, millions left homeless, and crops failed in the withering heat, the greatest the modern world has ever faced:"

RUSSIA Moscow has reached 102.2° F, after never before even breaking the 100-degree mark in recorded history. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev have flooded the airwaves in response to outrage over the wildfires and droughts caused by the global heat wave, as officials are forced to admit the situation is out of control. The Russian government has recommended people evacuate Moscow, banned wheat exports, diverted flights, fired senior military officers, and warned the fires could pose a nuclear threat if they reach areas contaminated by Chernobyl. Medvedev called the linked disasters "evidence of this global climate change," which means "we need to change the way we work, change the methods that we used in the past."
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." And that is just the premature deaths from Moscow. Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. 

CHINA The worst flooding ever recorded in northeast China, caused by weeks of torrential rain with no end in sight, has caused nearly $6 billion in damage to water projects there, In addition, "52 people are reported to have died and an additional 20 are missing following rain-triggered floods in central China's Henan Province." "In the southwestern province of Yunnan, at least 11 people died and 11 were missing following a landslide caused by heavy rain." 

INDIA "Record temperatures in northern India have claimed hundreds of lives in what is believed to be the hottest summer in the country since records began in the late 1800s." "The death toll in flashfloods that hit the remote mountainous region of Ladakh in Indian-held Kashmir has risen to 103." 

NORTH KOREA "Flooding last month caused serious damage in North Korea, destroying homes, farms, roads and buildings and hurting the economy," the secretive dictatorship of North Korea admitted yesterday. "About 36,700 acres of farmland was submerged and 5,500 homes and 350 public buildings and facilities were destroyed or flooded," the official Korean Central News Agency said. "The news agency had previously reported heavy rains fell in the country in mid- to late July, but those earlier reports did not mention flooding or damage. State media in the impoverished, reclusive nation often report news days or weeks after an event takes place." 

PAKISTAN "Islamist charities, some with suspected ties to militants, stepped in on Monday to provide aid for Pakistanis hit by the worst flooding in memory, piling pressure on a government criticized for its response to the disaster that has so far killed more than 1,000 people." "Thousands of people are fleeing Pakistan's most populous areas as devastating floods" that have already affected more than 3 million people "sweep towards the south." Fatima Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto's niece, lashed out: "The floods are just the latest, most tragic example of how inept the Pakistani state truly is."

As warming-fueled disasters grow more intense and more frequent, they put greater pressure on the governments of these nuclear states. This threat to global security was brought to the White House's attention as far back as 1979, when top scientists warned that global warming "would threaten the stability of food supplies, and would present a further set of intractable problems to organized societies." As the CNA Corporation wrote in 2007, "climate change is a threat multiplierin already fragile regions, exacerbating conditions that lead to failed states — the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism." The Pentagon's 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review recognized that global warming impacts and disasters will "act as an accelerant of instability or conflict." 

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2010/08/06/global-boiling-nuclear/

Oil companies' bid to suspend California law

California headed for a high-stakes battle over global warming Tuesday, as an oil industry-backed measure to suspend the state's aggressive climate-change law qualified for the November ballot.

The fight will pit the state's powerful environmental organizations and clean-tech businesses against the oil and manufacturing industries. It also arrays many conservative political leaders, including the GOP nominee for governor, Meg Whitman, against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a fellow Republican who regards the global warming law as a key part of his legacy.

The measure, launched...  by Texas oil giants Valero Energy Inc. and Tesoro Corp., comes as the industry has fallen under intense scrutiny in the wake of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster.

Under California's law, known as AB 32, the state is setting limits on greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles, oil refineries and other industries, and will probably require that a third of the state's electricity come from renewable sources by 2020, up from about 15% today. New rules under the law would encourage sales of more fuel-efficient cars.

Supporters of the law say it has spurred a large market for solar, wind and other clean energy sources.

Schwarzenegger lashed back Tuesday, saying, "This initiative sponsored by greedy Texas oil companies would cripple California's fastest-growing economic sector, reverse our renewable energy policy and decimate our environmental progress for the benefit of these oil companies' profit margins."

He added, "I will not allow this to happen on my watch."

Proponents of the measure spent $3 million, more than two thirds of it contributed by the two Texas companies and other energy interests, to...  to place the measure on the ballot. 

Read more here... http://www.latimes.com/news/science/environment/la-me-climate-initiative-20100623,0,216211.story

Fwd: Hottest April on Record

NOAA's report for April 

NOAA's report for April  - Global Highlights

• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for April 2010 was the warmest on record at 14.5°C (58.1°F), which is 0.76°C (1.37°F) above the 20^thcentury average of 13.7°C (56.7°F). This was also the 34^th consecutive April with global land and ocean temperatures above the 20^th century average.
• The worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.0°C (60.9°F) and the warmest April on record. The warmth was most pronounced in the equatorial portions of the major oceans, especially the Atlantic.
• The April worldwide land surface temperature was 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20^thcentury average of 8.1°C (46.5 °F)—the third warmest on record.
• For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 13.3°C (56.0°F) was the warmest January-April period. This value is 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20^th century average.

Boston Globe - Worst News Story on Global Warming, Ever?

Joe Romm, a well respected climate scientist states that the front page article written by Beth Daley in the May 16, 2010 Sunday Boston Globe "qualifies as one of the worst news articles ever published on global warming." 

Problem 1 - The Globe article starts with the headline - A cooling trend 

When the headline is a blatant lie, you know the article can't be good no matter what else is said. The facts are we've had consistent warming now for decades. The last decade 2000 - 2009 was the warmest decade ever, warmer than 1990 - 1999, which was warmer than 1980 - 1989, which was warmer than 1970 - 1979. On top of that, we have set all time records this year for global temperatures with January through April being the hottest January through April on record. Here is the data from NASA. 

Of course the Globe will claim that the headline is really about the cooling of the relationship between two MIT scientists, but then that claim and the headline are both intentionally deceptive. What newspaper could seriously believe that a strained relationship between two professors was worthy of a front page headline article? 

Problem 2 - The subheadline "... shows how hard climate consensus will be"

is also deceptive. The author's main point throughout this article is that if 2 MIT scientists can't reach agreement on this topic, then there can be no hope of consensus on climate change. Nothing is farther from the truth, but the author does not mention the many statements representing thousands of scientists of scientific consensus on climate change, only a few of which are listed here including http://www.pacinst.org/climate/climate_statement.pdf, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/uk-science-statement.html, http://www.aaas.org/news/press_room/climate_change/mtg_200702/aaas_climate_statement.pdf

There is compelling, comprehensive, and consistent objective evidence that humans are changing the climate in ways that threaten our societies and the ecosystems on which we depend.

We, members of the UK science community, have the utmost confidence in the observational evidence for global warming and the scientific basis for concluding that it is due primarily to human activities. 

The scientific evidence is clear: global climate 

change caused by human activities

is occurring now, and it is a growing 

threat to society.

Problem 3 - Creating a false impression of balanced reporting

When an article presents two "experts"  on opposite sides of a debate, it presents a false picture to the public that the scientific community is evenly split on this issue. The truth is that scientists are not evenly split on this issue. E

very national academy of science in the world has come to the same conclusion. 

There are 100 peer-reviewed, published, scientific articles that have found greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change for every 1 paper that doubts that conclusion.  

The author also fails to point out that 12 other MIT scientists have published a paper that states that the effects of global warming are likely to be double that of previous estimates. The facts are that the vast majority of Lindzen's colleagues at MIT disagree with his position quite strenuously. 

Problem 4 - The author chooses a known climate skeptic Roger Pielke as the tie breaker for this debate. The following link is Foreign Policy's list of climate skeptics, which they state is designed to allow you sort out legitimate concerns from the nonsense. 

Pielke is certainly spouting nonsense in his quote in the Globe article, which implies that we need to wait for consensus of all 6.5 billion people on the planet before taking action on climate change. "If these two guys can't agree... how can we expect 6.5 billion people to?" 

Problem 5 - Near-libelous attacks on Kerry Emanuel. I'll quote Joe Romm here. 

Really, has journalism sunk so low that a reporter for a major newspaper simply reprints any charge, no matter how outlandish, against a highly respected scientist like Emanuel, with not one single substantiating fact or independent quote?
Shame on Beth Daley and shame on the Boston Globe for running this piece.  They should quickly run an apology to Emanuel.


UPDATE:   Since I have interviewed Emanuel in the past, I sent him an e-mail requesting a quote for the record, responding to this outrageous charge by Lindzen that the Globe stenographer reprinted.  He answered:

"The only group that has really profited from the denial of global climate change is the media, who have a strong vested interest in keeping a debate going. You are correct that I never said to Lindzen or anyone else that we should take advantage of the situation for the benefit of the department; this is pure fabrication."

World Temperature Map for March

For those of you who like to see the graphical depictions of global warming in progress, here is the image for March. 

The short summary is that the three month period, January - March 2010, was the hottest three month period on record and March 2010 is the hottest March on record. 


The record temperatures we're seeing now are especially impressive because we've been in the "deepest solar minimum in nearly a century." The solar minimum now appears to be over, so we can expect warming from both increased CO2 and increased solar radiation over the next few years. 

What's Melting?

Fact vs. Fraud

These groups say the danger of manmade global warming is...

FACT	FRAUD
U.S. Agency for International Development	American Petroleum Institute
United States Department of Agriculture	US Chamber of Commerce
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration	National Association of Manufacturers
National Institute of Standards and Technology	Competitive Enterprise Institute
United States Department of Defense	Industrial Minerals Association
United States Department of Energy	National Cattlemen’s Beef Association
National Institutes of Health	Great Northern Project Development
United States Department of State	Rosebud Mining
United States Department of Transportation	Massey Energy
U.S. Geological Survey	Alpha Natural Resources
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency	Southeastern Legal Foundation
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research	Georgia Agribusiness Council
National Center for Atmospheric Research	Georgia Motor Trucking Association
National Aeronautics & Space Administration	Corn Refiners Association
National Science Foundation	National Association of Home Builders
Smithsonian Institution	National Oilseed Processors Association
International Arctic Science Committee	National Petrochemical and Refiners Association
Arctic Council	Western States Petroleum Association
African Academy of Sciences
Australian Academy of Sciences
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts
Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias
Cameroon Academy of Sciences
Royal Society of Canada
Caribbean Academy of Sciences
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Académie des Sciences, France
Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina of Germany
Indonesian Academy of Sciences
Royal Irish Academy
Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy
Indian National Science Academy
Science Council of Japan
Kenya National Academy of Sciences
Madagascar’s National Academy of Arts, Letters and Sciences
Academy of Sciences Malaysia
Academia Mexicana de Ciencias
Nigerian Academy of Sciences
Royal Society of New Zealand
Polish Academy of Sciences
Russian Academy of Sciences
l’Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
Academy of Science of South Africa
Sudan Academy of Sciences
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
Tanzania Academy of Sciences
Turkish Academy of Sciences
Uganda National Academy of Sciences
The Royal Society of the United Kingdom
National Academy of Sciences, United States
Zambia Academy of Sciences
Zimbabwe Academy of Science
American Academy of Pediatrics
American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society
American College of Preventive Medicine
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
American Medical Association
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
American Public Health Association
American Quaternary Association
American Institute of Biological Sciences
American Society of Agronomy
American Society for Microbiology
American Society of Plant Biologists
American Statistical Association
Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
Botanical Society of America
Crop Science Society of America
Ecological Society of America
Federation of American Scientists
Geological Society of America
National Association of Geoscience Teachers
Natural Science Collections Alliance
Organization of Biological Field Stations
Society of American Foresters
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Society of Systematic Biologists
Soil Science Society of America
Australian Coral Reef Society
Australian Medical Association
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
Engineers Australia
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies
Geological Society of Australia
British Antarctic Survey
Institute of Biology, UK
Royal Meteorological Society, UK
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
European Federation of Geologists
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
European Science Foundation
International Association for Great Lakes Research
International Union for Quaternary Research
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
World Federation of Public Health Associations
World Health Organization
World Meteorological Organization

“FACT” organizations from "Is There a Scientific Consensus on Global Warming?", SkepticalScience.com.


“FRAUD” organizations are petitioners v. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act.

NOAA reports 4th warmest January

As seems to be a pattern now, the hottest weather eludes much of the East Coast, where most of the lawmakers and major media reside. 

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January 2010 was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F). This is the fourth warmest January on record.

Global Warming Deniers

2000 to 2009 Hottest Decade on Record

Here is some background information for conversations with your friends who think the climate is cooling.

The World Meterological Organization released a statement today that says that there is no slowdown in global warming.

Here are some of the key points.

"The decade of the 2000s (2000–2009) was warmer than the decade spanning the 1990s (1990–1999), which in turn was warmer than the 1980s (1980–1989).

The year 2009 is likely to rank in the top 10 warmest on record since the beginning of instrumental climate records in 1850. The current nominal ranking of 2009, which does not account for uncertainties in the annual averages, places it as the fifth-warmest year. 

This year above-normal temperatures were recorded in most parts of the continents. Only North America (United States and Canada) experienced conditions that were cooler than average. Given the current figures, large parts of southern Asia and central Africa are likely to have the warmest year on record."