Net Oil Exports Falling

A Wall Street Journal article reports that net exports of oil from the top 15 oil producers fell in 2006 and 2007, according to US Government data.

The implications for our future are huge.

There have been many projections made regarding when we will experience peak oil. Those projections usually focus on peak oil production. This data points out the cold hard reality that peak oil availability is what is important for oil importers.

If you are looking for the peak oil availability date for oil importers, that day has already come and gone.

Some would argue that we have to reduce our dependence on foreign oil because of economics.

Some would argue that we have to reduce our dependence on foreign oil for national security.

Some would argue that we have to reduce our dependence on foreign oil to protect the environment.

Some would argue that we have to reduce our dependence on foreign oil for moral reasons.

The cold hard fact is that we have to reduce our dependence on foreign oil because we have no other choice.

"Fresh data from the U.S. Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world's top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well.

Demand in the Middle East is a major factor right now, said Adam Robinson, an oil analyst at Lehman Brothers in New York. Mr. Robinson predicts the region will constitute more than 40% of increased demand next year.

Saudi Arabia in particular has become a major energy consumer as the country pushes to put its oil riches to greater use. The kingdom is in the middle of a major investment campaign to become a world player in petrochemicals, aluminum and fertilizers, all of which will require huge amounts of oil and natural gas.

Since 2004, Saudi oil consumption has increased nearly 23%, to 2.3 million barrels a day last year. Jeffrey Brown, a Dallas-based petroleum geologist who studies net export numbers, said that at its current growth rate, Saudi Arabia could be consuming 4.6 million barrels a day by 2020.

That would cut significantly into Saudi exports even as the world looks to its largest oil supplier to help manage rising demand. Saudi Arabia has nearly a quarter of the world's proven reserves and supplies around 12% of the 86 million barrels a day that the world now consumes."